by David Kopel in the Volokh Conspiracy
Economic projections of the consequences of Obamacare:
A brand-new Issue Paper from the Independence Institute features an analysis by Arthur Laffer on the national and Colorado consequences of Obama care, based on a one trillion dollar increase in health care subsidies over the next decade. These consequences include:
Overall, total federal expenditures will be 5.6 percent higher than otherwise by 2019, adding $285.6 billion to the federal deficit in 2019.
An increase in national health care expenditures by an additional 8.9 percent by 2019.An increase in medical price inflation by 5.2 percent above what it would have been otherwise by 2019.
Reduce U.S. economic growth in 2019 compared to the baseline scenario by 4.9 percent for the nation as a whole and 4.3 percent in Colorado.
Higher medical inflation and overall expenditures will ultimately lead to government expenditures that exceed the $1.0 trillion in expenditures on health subsidies. The net present value of all additional federal government
expenditures through 2019 that will occur as a result of a federal health care reform is $1.2 trillion, or a $3,900 bill for every man, woman, and child in the U.S.
Despite the additional $1 trillion in expected health care subsidies by the government, 30 million people would remain uninsured. The cost to reduce the number of uninsured by 16 million people is $62,500 in subsidy expenditures per person insured.
Be sure to read that Issue Paper, too.